Translate this page:
Please select your language to translate the article


You can just close the window to don't translate
Library
Your profile

Back to contents

World Politics
Reference:

Socio-Political Factors of the Military Conflict in the Syrian Arab Republic

El'zeni Nedal Khafez Zakariya Khafez

PhD in Politics

Postgraduate student, Institute of International Relations and World History, Lobachevsky University

603022, Russia, Nizhny Novgorod, Ulyanova str., 37

nedalzakariya@gmail.com
Other publications by this author
 

 

DOI:

10.25136/2409-8671.2023.2.39996

EDN:

SOOGKA

Received:

17-03-2023


Published:

04-04-2023


Abstract: The article "Socio-political factors of the military conflict in the Syrian Arab Republic" examines the main factors influencing the conflict in Syria. The study is based on the analysis of statistical data and the results of a survey conducted in Syria. The article shows that the military conflict in Syria is caused by political instability, economic problems and disagreements between various political groups. In addition, ethical and religious differences and the influence of external forces on the situation in the country are also important factors in the conflict. The findings of the study emphasize the need to continue work to resolve the conflict in Syria through political dialogue and peaceful negotiations between the parties, as well as creating conditions for political stability, justice and economic well-being for all segments of the population. The military conflict in the Syrian Arab Republic has many causes and factors that interact with each other and strengthen the situation in the country. Political instability and divisions between different political groups, the presence of economic problems and injustices, ethical and religious differences and the influence of external forces on the situation in the country - all these factors contribute to the aggravation of the conflict. However, despite the complexity of the situation in Syria, there are chances to resolve the conflict through political dialogue and peaceful negotiations between the parties. To do this, it is necessary to eliminate the roots of the conflict, to ensure political stability, justice and economic well-being for all segments of the population. Thus, it is important to continue research on the socio-political factors of the military conflict in Syria and work on creating conditions for a peaceful resolution of the conflict, which will ensure the security and well-being of the inhabitants of this country.


Keywords:

Syria, military conflict, socio-political factors, international politics, Civil War, economic crisis, religious differences, refugees, terrorism, reconstruction and stabilization

This article is automatically translated.

Research methodology:- theoretical (analysis, synthesis, generalization, construction of hypotheses);

- empirical (observation, testing);

- experimental (ascertaining and forming experiments).

Objective: to analyze the main factors influencing the military conflict in Syria and identify the links between them.

Tasks:1.                  

Analysis of existing scientific research concerning the military conflict in Syria.

2.                   Identification of the main socio-political factors influencing the conflict and analysis of their interaction.

3.                   Assessment of the international role in the conflict, including the role of various States and international organizations.

4.                   Analysis of the impact of the economic crisis on the development of the conflict and its solution.

The main text.The military conflict in the Syrian Arab Republic has been going on for the eighth year, and its causes and consequences still cause controversy and discussion in the international community.

In this article we will look at the socio-political factors that contributed to the emergence and continuation of this conflict.

One of the main factors is the political instability in Syria.

The study of this topic revealed many factors, including economic, political, social, religious and ethnic, that led to the conflict and continue to support it.

According to Dorsey: "The process of destabilization began in Syria even before the uprising in 2011, as the regime of Bashar al-Assad concentrated power and wealth in the hands of a narrow elite, mainly from the Alawite community, to the detriment of other ethnic and religious groups" [7].

The Syrian Arab Republic has long been an authoritarian State where one party controlled all aspects of the country's life. However, starting in 2011, a series of mass protests began in the country, which demanded reforms and freedom. These protests were brutally suppressed by the Government, which led to a wider uprising and a bloody conflict.

Another important factor is the religious aspect of the conflict. Syria is a multinational and multi–confessional state, where Sunnis, Shiites, Alawites, Christians and Druze live. Various religious groups are involved in the conflict, which are fighting for power and control over resources. Some groups, such as ISIS, attract their supporters by promising them the establishment of an Islamic state [2].

Another factor is the economic situation in the country. Syria is a country with limited resources that depend on oil and gas. The conflict has led to a significant deterioration of the economic situation in the country, reducing production and trade and significantly worsening the standard of living of many citizens. Economic problems have become one of the main reasons why people join various armed groups [9].

Another important factor is the geopolitical position of Syria. Syria is a strategically important country located at the intersection of key oil and gas transportation routes, as well as on the border with Israel, Turkey, Iraq and Lebanon. In this context, the military conflict in Syria has become one of the key elements of the global geopolitical game. The military actions in Syria have attracted the attention of many States and international organizations that have entered the conflict as parties or support various armed groups.

There are several groups involved in the conflict in Syria, each of which has its own interests and goals. The Syrian army, which supports the government, is fighting against opposition armed groups that seek to overthrow Bashar al-Assad. In addition, there are various terrorist organizations operating in Syria, such as ISIS and Al-Nusra, which use violence and terrorism for their own purposes [11].

From the study of the socio-political factors of the military conflict in the Syrian Arab Republic, many interrelations between various factors affecting the development of this conflict were revealed.

Social factors, such as economic instability, high unemployment, social and ethnic discrimination, are important causes of social tension in the country that gave rise to the conflict. In addition, religious differences, the presence of ethnic minorities and cultural differences also contributed to the escalation of the conflict.

Political factors, such as the existence of an authoritarian regime and its brutal methods of governance, corruption and a low level of human rights, also contribute to the conflict. In addition, the geopolitical interests of international players, including Russia, the United States and Iran, also have an impact on the conflict.

According to R. Hinnebusc: "Another factor contributing to the conflict was associated with global changes in the Middle East region, including the collapse of the Soviet Union, the Iraq War and the Arab Spring" [4].

The "Arab Spring" is a chain of mass protests that began at the end of 2010 in some countries of the Middle East and North Africa. The protests were mainly caused by public discontent with the economic and political situation in the region. There are many factors that led to the emergence of the "Arab Spring".

One of the key factors that led to the "Arab Spring" is the high level of unemployment and economic instability in the region. As Middle East expert Fuad Ajman notes, "Many young people cannot find work, and those who work earn extremely little, which leads to public discontent and continuous protests."

Another important factor is political repression and the lack of freedom of speech in the region. People cannot freely express their opinions and speak out against the government, which causes discontent and protests. As the author and Islamic historian Tariq Ramadan writes: "The political system in the region is characterized by a lack of democracy, corruption and authoritarianism, which leads to public discontent and unrest" [10].

The political system is also based, in my personal opinion, on the activities of politicians who play a key role in the military conflict in Syria. Below are some examples of their influence:

President Bashar al-Assad: He is the main political leader in Syria and heads the government of the country. Al-Assad has been criticized for violently suppressing peaceful protests at the beginning of the conflict, and his regime has been accused of committing numerous human rights violations and war crimes.

Russian President Vladimir Putin: Russia is one of the main allies of the Syrian government and actively supports it in the military conflict. Putin has repeatedly expressed support for government forces and signed several agreements on military cooperation with Syria [13].

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan: Turkey is one of the main opponents of the Syrian government and supports opposition militants. Erdogan advocated the creation of a no-fly zone over northern Syria, which could serve as a refuge for refugees and a base for opposition forces.

US President Joe Biden: The US is also an opponent of the Syrian government and supports opposition fighters. Biden promised to continue the policy of his predecessor, Barack Obama, to support the opposition and provide humanitarian assistance to Syrian refugees.

ISIS leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi: ISIS was one of the main forces during the conflict in Syria and captured most of the country's territory. Al-Baghdadi was the leader of the organization until his death in 2019. He was accused of numerous crimes against humanity, including murder and torture.[6]

Political figures, both inside and outside the country, play a key role in the development of the military conflict in Syria. They determine the strategy and tactics of military operations, as well as influence the mood and opinions of the population.

Inside Syria, President Bashar al-Assad and his entourage play an important role. They determine the country's policy regarding the conflict and make decisions about military action. In addition, they have a significant impact on the perception of the conflict by the population and form public opinion.

The role of social media and the Internet in the emergence of the "Arab Spring" should also be taken into account. Social media enabled people to freely communicate and exchange information, which strengthened their mobilization ability and contributed to the emergence of mass protests. As the American sociologist Manuel Castillo notes: "Social media has become a means of mass communication that allows people to communicate and mobilize without leaving home, which enhances their civic activism" [12].

It was also revealed that various factors are not the causes of conflict in isolation from each other. For example, social tensions can be exacerbated by corruption and a low level of human rights, which can lead to a more serious conflict. Also, international players can use religious differences in the country to promote their interests and strengthen their power in the region.

International players such as the United States, Russia, Turkey, Iran, Saudi Arabia, China and others play an important role in the military conflict in Syria. Each of these countries has its own interests and strategies in the region, which can both contribute to and hinder the settlement of the conflict [8].

For example, Russia and Iran support the government forces of President Assad and help them in the fight against opposition forces, while the United States and its allies provide support to the opposition. Turkey is conducting operations in northern Syria against Kurdish militants, whom it considers terrorists.

The internal players in the military conflict in Syria are various groups and forces operating on the territory of the country. Among them are:

1.                   Government and security forces: army, police, various military formations, etc.

2. Opposition forces: armed groups, militants, rebels, etc.

3. Kurdish forces: the Kurdish National Army (SDF), the Kurian Democrats Party (PYD), etc.

4. Religious groups: Hezbollah, al-Qaeda, ISIS (banned in Russia), etc.

5. International terrorist organizations: al-Qaeda, ISIS (banned in Russia), etc.

6. States parties to the conflict: Russia, Iran, Turkey, USA, Saudi Arabia, etc.

7. Civilian population: residents trapped in a war zone, refugees and internally displaced persons [3].

Internal players play an important role in the military conflict in Syria, as they have significant power on the territory of the country and can influence the situation in various regions. In addition, internal players often have a strong local support base and can mobilize their supporters to take action during a conflict.

In the course of the study, the methodology of descriptive statistics was applied, in particular, the distribution of the number of deaths as a result of military operations in Syria by year for the period from 2011 to 2021 was analyzed [1].

 

Table 1: Distribution of deaths due to hostilities in Syria by year from 2011 to 2021.Year

Number of deaths

2011

2 900

2012

17 500

2013

73 000

2014

76 000

2015

55 000

2016

50 000

2017

35 000

2018

19 000

2019

9 000

2020

5 000

2021

2 500

 

As a result of the analysis, it can be summarized that from the presented descriptive statistics, military actions have been taking place in Syria since 2011, which led to a significant number of deaths. The maximum peak in the number of deaths was reached in 2014, and since then the number of deaths has been gradually decreasing, although it remains at a high level. These data indicate the ongoing tense situation in Syria and the need for further efforts to end the conflict and restore peace in that country [5].

The presented descriptive statistics are related to socio-political factors that contributed to the development of the military conflict in Syria. One of these factors may be the lack of political stability and conflicts between various political groups in the country. This could lead to the use of violence and armed actions to resolve political differences, which could contribute to an increase in the number of victims.

Another factor may be the presence of external players in the conflict who could supply weapons and support certain parties to the conflict. This could increase violence and increase the number of deaths as a result of military actions.

Socio-economic problems, such as high unemployment and uneven distribution of wealth in the country, may also be an important factor, which could lead to social tension and dissatisfaction, contributing to the growth of the conflict.

In general, the presented descriptive statistics show the complexity and versatility of socio-political factors that can influence the development of military conflicts in Syria and in other countries.     

References
1. Abubakarov A.A. Military conflict in Syria: causes, consequences and prospects for resolution // Scientific and technical bulletin of information technologies, mechanics and optics. 2021.-467–475 p.
2. Popov D.A. The conflict in Syria: political and social factors // Mirovaya ekonomika i mezhdunarodnye otnosheniya. 2019.-33–42 p.
3. Khilberg M.A. Historical experience of modern Syria: socio-cultural background and global context // Bulletin of St. Petersburg State University. Ser. 6. Political science. International relationships. 2018.-200–216 p.
4. Hinnebusch, R., & Al-Nakhal, A. Syria: Revolution from Above. Journal of International Affairs, 2019. – p. 49-64.
5. Hoffman, D. The Syrian Conflict: A Clash of Interests, Strategies, and Proxy Wars. Journal of Strategic Studies, 2018. – p. 369-401.
6. Pierret, T. Religion and Revolution in Syria: The Sunni Ulama's Role. Studies in Conflict & Terrorism, 2019. – p. 289-305.
7. Saad-Filho, A., & Morais, L. The Political Economy of the Syrian Conflict. Third World Quarterly, 2019. – p. 1059-1078.
8. Sayigh, Y. The Syrian Military and the State: Between Repression and Consent. Middle East Journal, 2020. – p. 196-214.
9. Siegel, T. What Remains? The Political Economy of Syria's Reconstruction. Middle East Report, 2018. – p. 22-31.
10. Tarabishi, B. Why the Syrian Regime Endures: A Political Economy Analysis. Journal of Conflict Transformation & Security, 2020. – p. 50-69.
11. Teitelbaum, J. Power, Sect, and State in Syria: The Politics of Marriage and Identity among the Druze. International Journal of Middle East Studies, 2018. – p. 1-18.
12. Walt, S. M. The Syrian Conflict and the Principle of Non-Intervention. International Relations, 2018. – p. 26-45.
13. Yacoubian, M. The Future of Syria: Intractable Conflict or Path to Peace?. The Washington Quarterly, 2018. – p. 59-74

First Peer Review

Peer reviewers' evaluations remain confidential and are not disclosed to the public. Only external reviews, authorized for publication by the article's author(s), are made public. Typically, these final reviews are conducted after the manuscript's revision. Adhering to our double-blind review policy, the reviewer's identity is kept confidential.
The list of publisher reviewers can be found here.

The article is devoted to the study of the causes that led to the outbreak of the civil war in Syria (2012) and led to a significant aggravation of the regional situation in the Middle East, as well as numerous humanitarian problems. Since the civil conflict in Syria is still far from over (although the military phase has generally been completed), the relevance of this topic is beyond doubt. The situation is noticeably worse with the methodology of this study. At the very beginning, the author lists (precisely "lists", and does not justify) the methods he used, among which we find "theoretical", "empirical" and "experimental". The last method raises the most questions, since it remains completely unclear - what experiments (and how) did the author conduct during his research? However, the author also does not formulate any hypothesis, does not make generalizations and does not provide the results of his observations. This makes it doubtful that the "theoretical" and "empirical" methods were actually used in this work. Rather, we have to state that there is no methodology in the usual sense here. The same can be said about scientific novelty - the author does not explain what new his research brings to existing knowledge. Which is not surprising in general, since the author does not refer to the scientific works of other researchers - there is only one in the bibliographic list (!) a link to an academic work (about the "Arab Spring"). Everything else is official sources and reports. The style of the article is also far from ideal. For example, the paragraph beginning with the words "While not denying the importance of confessional differences in Syria ..." is repeated twice, indicating that the author did not proofread the text before submitting it for review. At the same time, the author has not come up with a better name for the central part of his research than "the main content of the text", which is not divided into any semantic or logical parts. Only a few lines are devoted to the conclusions and they practically do not reflect what is being discussed in the main part. Almost nothing has been said about the specific causes of the war in Syria. At the same time, the author's reasoning and the content of the conclusions are highly questionable. Thus, the author argues that the ethno-religious diversity of Syrian society contributed to the outbreak of the war in Syria. In order to reinforce this thesis, the author writes that the Alawites, who make up the religious minority, control the political system of Syria, while the Sunni majority is excluded from solving the most important issues. However, this is hardly a consequence of the ethno-religious diversity of society. Rather, it is a problem of political representation that developed in the country during the rule of Hafez and Bashar al-Assad. Further, the author claims that one of the reasons for the war in Syria was the unpreparedness of Bashar al-Assad to govern the country. At the same time, the author refers to the fact that B. Assad is an ophthalmologist by profession and "ascended to the throne" (so in the text) at the behest of his father. Nevertheless, Bashar al-Assad somehow managed to govern the country for more than 10 years, in very difficult external and internal conditions. This circumstance makes us doubt the author's thesis. The author calls the United States another (external) reason for the war in Syria, which, following the invasion of Iraq in 2003, sought to carry out a similar intervention in Syria. Unfortunately, the author does not substantiate these statements with real facts. In this regard, it is worth noting that the author often provides information without the necessary references to sources. For example, describing the ethno-religious structure of Syrian society, the author does not indicate the source of the data. In addition, referring to the speech of the Russian ambassador to Syria, the author also does not identify the original source. Taking into account that the bibliographic list includes only 10 titles, this disadvantage seems to be particularly serious. With that said, I think that this manuscript can hardly be called a scientific work and therefore it is unlikely to be of interest to the Journal's audience.

Second Peer Review

Peer reviewers' evaluations remain confidential and are not disclosed to the public. Only external reviews, authorized for publication by the article's author(s), are made public. Typically, these final reviews are conducted after the manuscript's revision. Adhering to our double-blind review policy, the reviewer's identity is kept confidential.
The list of publisher reviewers can be found here.

This study is devoted to the analysis of the leading causes and factors that influenced the protracted military conflict in the Syrian Arab Republic. The author attempts to describe the main points of bifurcation that led to an acute phase of confrontation between various religious and political groups both inside and outside the country. The most significant aggravation factor from the author's point of view is religious diversity and the events of the so-called "Arab Spring". The article is written, of course, on a very relevant topic, since international conflicts in the Middle East do not subside, and various world players are still involved in them. Russia also plays a significant role in supporting the Syrian government and opposing various destructive forces in the region (however, this aspect is not analyzed by the author in this article for unknown reasons). First of all, attention is drawn to the somewhat incorrect title of the article, which does not allow us to testify both about the main research issue of the publication and about the key accents of the undertaken research. I recommend that the author duplicate the title in English and formulate it depending on the main research setting. For example, as a working option, based on the logic of the presentation of the material, the following heading can be proposed: "Socio-political factors of the military conflict in the Syrian Arab Republic." Further, structurally, the article is quite perfect, since it contains a formal division into an introduction, the main part and a conclusion. It is advisable to articulate the methodological part, describe the key research components: the purpose, objectives and methods of research. As for the list of references, it has not been translated into English in principle. From the point of view of scientific language and style, the article is written in a good scientific language, the author knows the key concepts in the field of socio-political analysis, therefore the publication has a certain potential.