Ivanov A.A. —
British Secret Services’ Political Agency and the Intelligence Intervention in the Russian North in 1918-1919
// Conflict Studies / nota bene. – 2023. – ¹ 3.
– P. 12 - 21.
DOI: 10.7256/2454-0617.2023.3.38904
URL: https://en.e-notabene.ru/cfmag/article_38904.html
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Abstract: In modern conditions the range of use of intelligence in politics is expanding. Today, experts single out intelligence operations as a separate kind of informational confrontation, on a par with the cybernetic and psychological struggle. In international conflicts, the goals are more and more often achieved not through direct military influence, but using alternative forms: sabotage, economic, diplomatic, etc. One of the widespread areas of secret services’ activity appears to be the interference into the development of the political systems of sovereign states. Thus, nowadays on a par with military interventions there are economic, diplomatic, ideological, intelligence, etc. interventions. This circumstance significantly complicates both the detection of foreign interventions and realization of countermeasures. It is especially difficult to solve these tasks in a situation of reconnaissance/intelligence intervention carried out by the secret services, whose activities are, as a rule, autonomous and entirely based on the use of unofficial methods and techniques, quite often associated with violation of the law. Moreover, as far as the choice of a interventional course by the government mostly depends on the information on the development of the situation provided by various departments, a misestimation is possible due to high level of bias in the work of intelligence-analytical services. In this perspective, studying the experience of past interventions largely reveals the most dangerous for the state forms of external interference. Account of this experience is a necessary condition for the formation of ability of society to resist disorganization and the crisis of statehood.
Ivanov A.A. —
Social Institution of religion in the Ideology of Bolshevism
// Genesis: Historical research. – 2022. – ¹ 1.
– P. 66 - 72.
DOI: 10.25136/2409-868X.2022.1.34852
URL: https://en.e-notabene.ru/hr/article_34852.html
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Abstract: In the current conditions of a shift in the moral values and ideological focus, the questions of interaction of various social institutions that ensure the integration of society based on the achievements of national culture are gaining relevance. Thus, there is heightened interest in the Church theme, namely the history of relations between the Russian Orthodox Church and the government. Lately, many political leaders alongside the church hierarchs, stand for integrating efforts aimed at countering national and global challenges, as well as developing a consistent system of social norms to overcome legal nihilism and build an effective civil society. In view of this, the study of the historical forms of relations between the Church and the government in Russia would facilitate the indicated processes by taking into account the experience of previous political regimes. The content of social experiments of the Bolsheviks in the territory of the former Russian Empire is explicitly described in the scientific and historical literature; however, the reasons and ideological prerequisites of confrontations between the Church and the government require clarification. This article aims to answer the question on inevitability of this conflict. For solving this problem, analysis was conducted on the works of the founders of Marxism-Leninism, which reveal the specificity of representations of the adherents of this ideology on the religious institutions prior to coming to power in Russia.
Ivanov A.A. —
Historical science and the problem of forecasting the vectors of social development
// History magazine - researches. – 2021. – ¹ 5.
– P. 41 - 51.
DOI: 10.7256/2454-0609.2021.5.36725
URL: https://en.e-notabene.ru/hsmag/article_36725.html
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Abstract: In light of the aspect that social development is a combination of stable and innovative phenomena, the emergence and implementation of which depends on the limited range of factors, it should not theoretically appear as a problem for the scholars to forecast the vectors of social development. In other words, if society depends on the trajectory of its previous development and are rare instances of the individuals going beyond the traditional institutional blockages of innovative progress, the historical science should provide ample opportunities for forecasting the events, namely of economic nature. Therefore, a number of historians of the XX century advances a thesis on the need to apply mathematical tools to the analysis of human behavior in the historical context. The trend for using mathematical tools in human resource management and humanities research has recently gained relevance. For a long time, this methodology was considered equally suitable for describing events of the past and predicting future events. The experience of using forecasting models and mechanisms created by historians is however quite contradictory. The scholars are not always able to predict the vector of social progress of degree of regression. This article aims to explain the reasons for this situation.