From the "one family, one child" policy to the "three-child" policy: historical aspects and contemporary challenges for the demographic situation in China

Petrikov Sergei Gennad'evich Lecturer; Department of Foreign Languages; MGIMO, Odintsovo branch 122 Mozhaiskoe highway, Odintsovo, Moscow region, 143005, Russia spetrik1963@mail.ru

Introduction.

The population of China, as of the end of 2024, was 1.408 billion. a person, which is approximately equal to the population of India. At the same time, the population reduction trend continues in China, while in India, on the contrary, the population continues to grow slowly. Nevertheless, with such a significant population, China is beginning to experience demographic problems. In this regard, the leadership of the People's Republic of China has begun in advance to implement measures aimed at overcoming negative trends in the demographic situation of the country. Thus, in the report of Premier of the State Council of the People's Republic of China Li Qiang at the 3rd session of the National People's Congress of the 14th convocation held in Beijing (March 5-11, 2025), among the priority goals for 2025, it was stated that China would continue efforts to develop state measures to encourage childbearing and support families with two or more children ^[21]. This indicates the increased attention of China, a leader in the implementation of family planning measures, to the issue of increasing the birth rate, as one of the factors that has a positive impact on improving the demographic state of the country.

The purpose of the research presented in this article is to conduct a comprehensive analysis of the evolution of China's demographic policy from the "one family, one child" policy to the "three children" policy, to clarify the impact of measures to implement this policy on the demographic state of the country, as well as to identify current challenges related to the current demographic situation in China. The purpose of the study is to conduct a historical analysis of the prerequisites for the introduction of a birth control policy, the stages of implementation and evolution of this policy to the "three children" policy. In addition, the study aims to examine the impact of the demographic situation on the labor market, the social security system and the economic growth of the country, to identify social problems related to the aging of the population, gender imbalance and changes in family composition. The task is also to identify the main challenges facing China in connection with the current demographic situation, assess the effectiveness of modern demographic policy measures and suggest possible steps by the Chinese leadership to improve it, taking into account the realities and prospects of the country's development. The research uses statistical data, scientific publications, official documents and other sources of information.

The relevance of the study of this issue in the article is due to the fact that after decades of implementing the "one family, one child" strategy and the subsequent softening of the course to the "two-child policy" and then to the "three-child policy", at the present stage China is beginning to experience a demographic imbalance, which is manifested in the obvious aging of the population, a reduction in labor force in the domestic market of the country and in the increasing gender disparity. Demographic changes also have serious socio-economic consequences, which are manifested in lower tax revenues and an increased burden on China's pension system. And a shortage of labor can lead to a general slowdown in the country's economic growth. In this regard, a careful study of China's demographic policy in its historical aspect is required.

In addition, it is quite obvious that the demographic problems associated with the problem of birth control in China and the resulting demographic problems are of global importance and affect the development of the entire world economy, the dynamics of global migration flows and, as a result, the geopolitical situation in various parts of the world.

The analysis of China's birth control policy also raises important questions about human rights, freedom of family planning, and points to the ethical side of government interference in the private lives of citizens and the consequences of such interference. At the present stage, significant changes in attitudes towards family and childbearing are taking place in Chinese society. At the same time, despite the lifting of all restrictions and the active adjustment of state policy in the field of fertility, as well as attempts to stimulate population growth, the birth rate in the country remains at a low level ^[3].

Thus, the study of the current state of the issue of the evolution of the birth control policy in China carries a high relevance, practical significance and global implications, as it allows us to analyze the history of the issue and understand the complex demographic processes and their socio-economic consequences associated with it. Studying the Chinese experience, the effectiveness of measures implemented in the country and the response of the population to them is extremely important for the development and implementation of demographic strategies in other countries facing similar challenges, including Russia ^[2].

1. Historical stages of China's state policy in the field of birth planning.

The "one family, one child" policy was initiated in China in 1979 and has become another large-scale, ambitious and controversial social experiment in the history of China's development. According to the Chinese government, due to the rapid growth of the population during that period, there was a serious threat to the pace of economic development of the country. In this regard, a whole system of measures to limit the birth rate of the country's population was developed and began to be implemented. At the same time, the current Constitution of China, approved in 1982, contains an article on planned fertility and the correspondence of population growth to the country's socio-economic development plans ^[18]. The main content of this "one family– one child" policy is the following provisions.

- Each family was allowed to have only one child, except in special cases. At the same time, the policy was applied mainly in urban areas, where control was stricter than in rural areas.

- In special cases, in rural areas, families were allowed to have a second child if the first was a girl. In addition, representatives of national minorities, as well as families where both parents were the only children in their families, were also allowed to have a second child.

- A special role was assigned to measures to control the implementation of restrictive measures. Administrative sanctions were imposed, according to which families who gave birth to a second child without permission were fined, dismissed from work or other punishments. In some cases, forced abortions and even sterilization could be used. A system of birth certificates was introduced.

- At the same time, benefits were applied for families with one child in terms of access to education, healthcare, and housing. Work was underway to change traditional social norms and popularize small families ^[9].

The "Two-child Policy" was announced and began to be implemented in 2016. Compared to the previous one-child policy, the new government strategy has brought significant changes to China's family planning policy. The main provisions of this policy include the following.

- Since January 1, 2016, all Chinese families have been allowed to have two children.

- A system of benefits was introduced to support families, these included tax deductions, an increase in maternity leave, and the provision of subsidies for education.

- A set of measures was announced to improve the accessibility of kindergartens and develop a range of services to support families with children.

As a result of the proposed measures, it was expected that the birth rate in the country would increase. However, the birth rate actually turned out to be lower, as many families faced high costs for education, housing, and medical services due to the increase in family composition. The "two children" policy was an important step in reforming China's demographic strategy, but its effect was limited due to socio-economic factors ^[22].

The "Three-Child Policy" was adopted by the Chinese government in 2021, is currently in effect, and represents the next stage of demographic strategy reform aimed at stimulating fertility and addressing the challenges of population aging. This policy has the following main provisions.

- All families have the right to have up to three children. This change reverses the previous restrictions set by the "one family— one child" (1979-2015) and "two children" (2016-2021) policies.

- The application of social and economic support measures for families with children has been announced, tax incentives, subsidies for housing, lump-sum payments, free or reduced-price medical care, including prenatal and postpartum care, the cost of education is reduced, including discounts on preschool and school education for the third child.

- Conditions for working parents have been improved, namely, the length of paid maternity leave has been increased, parental leave has been introduced for fathers, flexible working hours for employees with young children have been applied, parental leave has been increased, the educational burden on schoolchildren has been reduced, and it has been decided to build an additional number of kindergartens.

- Measures are being taken to reduce the financial burden on families by reducing the cost of raising children, providing benefits for utilities and transport in order to make the birth and upbringing of a third child more affordable.

- The equal participation of men and women in the upbringing of children and household care is encouraged.

- Information campaigns are being conducted aimed at popularizing large families and supporting family values, creating family support centers to receive parenting advice and other services ^[10].

The main program goals at the present stage are to mitigate the effects of population aging and maintain sustainable economic growth by increasing the number of able-bodied people ^[5].

An example of the implementation of the "three children" policy is the experience of the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region in Northern China and its administrative center, the city of Hohhot. The authorities of the city of Hohhot, according to the new rules in force, offer a one-time subsidy of 10 thousand yuan (about 1,394 US dollars) to families in which the first child is born. And those who have a second child will receive 10,000 yuan per year until the child turns five years old. For the third child, the annual subsidy will amount to 10 thousand yuan until the child turns 10 years old, the total amount of payments is limited to 100 thousand yuan, which is quite an impressive amount compared to other cities ^[21].

2. Analysis of the effectiveness of birth planning measures in China.

Official sources cite the positive results of the Chinese Government's efforts to stimulate the birth rate and overall efforts to improve the demographic situation in the country. According to the National Bureau of Statistics of China, in 2024, the number of births in the country was 9.54 million, which is 520,000 more than in 2023. This trend is mainly influenced by factors such as the accumulation of intentions to have children in recent years, the gradual introduction of fertility support policies at the regional level, and the preference for having children in the year of the Dragon according to the lunar calendar. At the same time, there is a decrease in the number of women of childbearing age, which affects the reproduction of the population in the next stages of China's development. With the improvement of people's living standards and the further improvement of medical care, the life expectancy of the population also continues to increase. At the end of 2024, the country's population was 1.40828 billion. This is 1.39 million fewer people than at the end of 2023. According to the results of 2024, the population decline slowed down by 690,000 compared to the previous year ^[23].

The age structure of China's population is mostly stable, and labor resources are still sufficient. By the end of 2024, the country's population aged 0 to 15 years numbered 239.99 million people, which is 17.1%; the working-age population aged 16-59 years numbered 857.98 million people, which is 60.9%. The elderly population aged 60 years and older numbered 310.31 million people, which is 22.0%, of which the elderly aged 65 years and older — 220.23 million people, which is 15.6%. The degree of population aging continues to increase, and the proportion of the elderly population aged 60-64 years is relatively high. The age structure of the entire population is quite young, which provides a favorable opportunity for deepening the reform and development of pension services and the implementation of a national strategy for an active response to population aging ^[24].

Despite the relatively favorable reports on the demographic state of the country, at the present stage, constant monitoring of the results of the government's policy of stimulating fertility is required. Based on the analysis of the measures being implemented to overcome the problem of China's aging population and other negative consequences of the implementation of birth control policies over the past five decades, a number of conclusions can be drawn.

There is a slight increase in the birth rate in China, as a result of the implementation of the policy of stimulating it, but the indicator remains low and does not reach the desired level. This indicates that the implemented measures are not effective enough to overcome the factors constraining the birth rate ^[22]. The effectiveness of the measures may vary depending on the region. In regions with a higher level of economic development and a higher cost of living, the measures taken are less effective. The main focus of this policy is on financial incentives, but financial incentives alone are clearly not enough to significantly increase the birth rate. At the same time, to achieve the desired effect, a systematic approach is needed, including a full range of measures to reduce the cost of raising children, develop a child care system, support working parents, and change social norms ^[16].

At the same time, the factors that limit the effectiveness of the measures carried out include the high cost of education, healthcare and housing, which inhibits the desire of families to have more children. In addition, women are often faced with a choice between a career and a family. And in this case, the insufficient support of working mothers makes parenting a very difficult task. Many young people, under the influence of liberal Western cultures, prefer to have fewer children or no children at all, which reflects the change in social norms and national values in the country at the present stage ^[12].

The implementation of fertility promotion measures in China faces a number of serious social and economic challenges. The economic challenges include increasing the financial burden on the state through the payment of benefits, subsidies for education and housing, which requires the allocation of significant financial resources from the state budget.

An increase in the number of young children will lead to a shortage of labor, especially in the short term, as parents will be forced to take parental leave, which will have a negative impact on the labor market. The uneven development of different regions may also increase, since in rich regions more significant financial resources may be allocated to measures to stimulate fertility ^[5].

Social challenges are of particular importance. Thus, traditional Chinese ethical norms are based on the principles of Confucianism and the cult of ancestors, historically attaching great importance to family and procreation. Having many children was seen as a guarantee of well-being and support in old age, and sons were valued above daughters due to the patrimonial structure of the family. However, modern China is undergoing significant social and economic transformations. Rapid urbanization, rising levels of education, and career ambitions are contributing to a change in attitudes towards marriage and childbearing, leading to a rethinking of traditional family norms, especially among young people. Young people are increasingly postponing marriage, preferring to have one child or giving up children altogether, focusing on personal self-realization and material well-being. China is also experiencing an increase in the number of divorces and single-parent families, which indicates a decrease in the importance of traditional ideas about the inviolability of marriage. As a result of these processes, young Chinese have already developed a focus on small families. The older generation, which adheres to traditional views on the family, continues to exert social pressure on young people, which is supported by modern government policies to stimulate fertility. However, changing the established focus on small families requires time and additional efforts from the whole society.

In addition, the responsibility of raising children often falls on the shoulders of women, which may limit their educational and career opportunities, and as a result, will increase gender inequality. At the same time, an increase in the number of children will face a shortage of appropriate infrastructure - kindergartens, schools, and medical facilities. Even the successful implementation of birth control measures will not eliminate the problem of population aging in the coming decades and will continue to put a strain on the social security system. Social challenges include uncertainty about how the country's government will support and develop long-term fertility promotion measures, taking into account the necessary financial and social costs ^[8].

It is important to note that economic and social challenges are interrelated. For example, financial difficulties can increase social inequality, and lack of infrastructure can limit the effectiveness of family support measures ^[15].

The successful implementation of fertility promotion measures in China will require a comprehensive approach that takes into account all these challenges and aims to create favorable conditions for families with children. This is a long and complex process that requires constant monitoring and policy adjustments.

Thus, a preliminary analysis shows that the effectiveness of new initiatives to stimulate fertility in China, despite their scale and persistence, has limitations. To achieve more significant results, a more comprehensive and targeted approach is needed, taking into account the economic, social and cultural factors influencing the decision to have children. Further research and data analysis are needed to assess the effectiveness of the measures being implemented, as well as to guarantee the long-term sustainability of their implementation in the near historical future ^[7].

3. Promising areas for continuing the policy of stimulating fertility in China and their importance to the world community.

Demographic policy issues in terms of reducing the negative impact of population aging, population decline and increasing gender inequality on the pace of socio-economic development of the country are in constant focus of attention from the leadership of the Communist Party of China (CPC) and the Government of the People's Republic of China. Thus, at the third plenum of the CPC Central Committee of the 20th convocation, held in Beijing on July 9-12, 2024, the need to improve the population development strategy with an emphasis on combating aging and declining fertility, as well as promoting the qualitative development of the population was emphasized. The party and state bodies constantly monitor and adjust measures in the field of demographic policy aimed at solving the main problems and ensuring the progressive development of the country ^{[15, 24]}.

The following are considered as promising areas for the development of demographic policy to stimulate fertility in China at the present stage.

The transition from disparate measures to an integrated family support system throughout the life cycle of a child's growing up: from birth to adulthood. This includes financial assistance, affordable preschool education, childcare services, flexible working conditions for parents, and increased investment in education, healthcare, and social protection in order to improve the quality of life for families and make parenting more attractive ^[7].

Socially, the emphasis is on creating a social atmosphere for the formation of a friendly environment in families, in particular, eliminating discrimination in the family based on the gender of parents, promoting equal responsibility for both parents for raising children, and creating a culture of parental support. This will eliminate the negative impact on young people of the formed "4-2-1" complex (4 grandparents, 2 parents and 1 child), in which one child has the burden of caring for 6 older relatives, including financial, emotional, psychological and ethical responsibility, which often prevents the creation of new families and the birth of children ^[16].

The development of advanced, innovative technologies, artificial intelligence and robotics will play an increasingly important role in reducing the burden on parents through the development of online education, telemedicine, electronic child care systems and other services.

Among the promising areas of China's demographic policy, further development of the healthcare system, pension provision and social protection is also being considered to quickly respond to the challenges associated with the ongoing aging of the country's population.

The long-term experience of implementing birth control measures in China and the planned changes in the country's demographic policy is undoubtedly of great global importance. At the same time, the Chinese experience provides a unique opportunity to study various aspects of the impact of demographic policy on the world's largest population. It can be stated that China demonstrates the evolution of approaches to the demographic policy of the state over a fairly long historical period during a large-scale experiment using various methods to stimulate fertility ^[13]. This provides an opportunity for other countries to assess the effectiveness of the measures applied and adapt them to their national circumstances. Studying the Chinese experience also provides an opportunity to assess the potential risks and negative consequences of strict birth control over a fairly long period of time, which may help other countries avoid similar mistakes.

The development of international cooperation and the exchange of accumulated experience and knowledge between China and other countries, including Russia, can contribute to the development of more effective strategies to address demographic problems in various countries around the world and confirms the importance of China's accumulated experience in planning and implementing measures within the framework of demographic policy of birth control.

Conclusion.

As a result of the conducted research, the relevance and practical significance of studying the evolution of childbearing control policy on the part of the Chinese leadership, taking into account the historical aspect of the subject area of the study, has been confirmed. The historical approach and descriptive research method allowed us to draw the main conclusions about the current state of childbearing control policy in China, which will consist in maintaining the trend of low birth rates in China in the near future and the need to restructure economic development models due to the continued aging of the population and a decrease in its total number. At the same time, the focus of the PRC leadership's attention will shift towards strengthening social protection of the population and scaling up measures to ensure the growth of its quality level. The results of the study have practical value for further research on the demographic state of China.

At the same time, it can be concluded that at present and in the future, China's modernization policy will face increasingly noticeable demographic and structural challenges. The trend of low birth rates will continue and even accelerate. The age composition of China's population will rapidly move into a significant aging stage, and the working-age population will continue to decline. This will become an important basic condition that must be taken into account in order to ensure the qualitative development of the country's economy. The rapid change in China's population structure has a serious impact on economic and social development and increases the risk of reducing the country's economic viability. This should lead to a restructuring of economic models that affect China's economic growth potential. In addition, these factors will have an impact on the sustainability of the social security system and will increase the contradiction between supply and demand for childbearing and healthcare services. At the same time, social contradictions will continue to accumulate.

As a result of the analysis conducted in the study, it can be concluded that in the future the Chinese leadership will have to deeply understand the new national conditions of low fertility and population aging, take a dialectical look at the opportunities and challenges associated with changes in the population structure, rebuild the population management system, realize the possibilities of applying scientific and technical innovations and developing the human resources of the elderly in an aging society. Social security and healthcare systems will need to be the focus of public attention in order to continuously develop and improve them. All this should ensure the successful implementation of the fertility support policy and the promotion of high-quality population development and the continuation of China's modernization within the framework of the "two centennial jubilee" policy.

In terms of demographic policy, it is obvious that China is at the forefront of the global fight against low fertility. The success or failure of Chinese initiatives will have significant consequences not only for China itself, but for the entire world. Further study of the Chinese experience and the development of international cooperation in this area are extremely important for finding effective solutions to the demographic challenges of the 21st century around the world.

Given that China's demographic situation tends to change rapidly due to the constant adjustment of birth control policies and the development of new measures to implement them, the study is limited by the relevance of the available data at present. It is clear that continued efforts will be required to further monitor, study and analyze China's current experience in implementing fertility promotion policies. Given that these issues are closely related to the current demographic situation in other countries of the world, the study and analysis of the demographic situation will remain in the focus of attention of the world community and will remain a subject area for expanding and deepening international cooperation in this area.