Analysis of the prospects for cooperation between China and Russia in the Northeast-Far East region in the context of the "Turn to the East" policy

Zhang Xinxin PhD in History Researcher; Moscow City Pedagogical University 129226, Russia, Moscow, 2nd Agricultural passage, 4 K. 1 zhangxinxinn@mail.ru

I. An overview of the historical origins and prerequisites of cooperation between China and Russia in the Northeast–Far East region

In the Far East, various ethnic groups in the basin of the Heilongjiang River (Amur) interacted and had contact with ancient China to varying degrees. For example, the ancient Chinese peoples of Sushan and Yilou maintained a certain degree of contact with other peoples of Northeast Asia through seasonal migrations and trading activities throughout their long history. Such early exchanges laid the foundation for later, more extensive interactions.^{[2, pp. 74-76]}

Since the middle of the 19th century, tsarist Russia has signed the Aigong and Beijing Treaties with the Qing government of China. These treaties have led to significant changes in territorial sovereignty and have led to a new political and geographical configuration of the Russian-Chinese Northeast–Far East region.^{[3; 4, p. 140]}

After the establishment of the People's Republic of China, the Soviet Union provided significant assistance to China in the field of economic construction, and the Northeast, as the industrial base of the new China, received extensive projects. The USSR helped China build a large number of industrial facilities in the northeastern region, such as the Anshan Metallurgical Company, the First Automobile Plant in Changchun, and others. Since the 1960s, Soviet-Chinese relations have gradually deteriorated, cooperation between Northeast China and the Soviet Far East has suffered greatly, and the volume of trade exchanges has declined sharply. However, even against the background of tensions in relations, some forms of informal interaction in the border areas still persisted. In the late 1980s and early 1990s, as relations between China and the USSR gradually normalized, cross-border trade recovered. In 1986, Gorbachev, General Secretary of the Central Committee of the CPSU, delivered a speech in Vladivostok, where he comprehensively outlined the USSR's policy towards the Asia-Pacific region and put forward the idea of "establishing an Asian security system"^[5]. In 2007, Russia, taking advantage of the opportunity to apply for an informal meeting of APEC leaders, began to develop a number of policy documents for the development of the Far Eastern region^{[6, pp.7-8]}.

After the political crisis in Ukraine in 2014, the Russian government aimed to overcome economic difficulties and diplomatic isolation by implementing a "turn to the East" strategy. Since the beginning of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict in 2022, Russia has faced unprecedented international isolation, and the policy of "turning to the East" has been a breakthrough in its search for new points of economic growth. The "Turn to the East" policy covers a wide range of political, economic and cultural fields. Politically, it strengthens diplomatic relations with the countries of the Asia–Pacific region and enhances political influence in the Asia-Pacific region; economically, it attracts investments from the Asia-Pacific countries and promotes the construction of infrastructure, resource development and industrial modernization in the Far East; culturally, it promotes cultural exchanges with the countries of the Asia–Pacific region and strengthens mutual understanding and recognition. ^{[1, pp. 8-21; 6, pp. 6-8]}

In March 2023, a joint statement by the leaders of China and Russia on key areas for the development of economic cooperation between the two countries emphasized: "to deeply unlock the potential of cooperation between our local and border territories, increase efficiency, and develop mutually beneficial cooperation between the Northeast-Far East region between China and Russia"^[6,7] this determined the goals and directions for cooperation in the development of the Far East in the new conditions.

In general, although there are historical disputes between China and Russia regarding the ownership of the Russian Far East, this has also led to the establishment of historical ties between the two countries, providing an important basis for historical research on this issue by Chinese and Russian scientists and laying a foundation for modern cultural exchange and interaction between China and Russia.

II. In the context of the policy of "turning to the East", the current state of cooperation in the Northeast-Far East region and China's strategic considerations

2.1 The political and economic context of the "turn to the East" policy proposal

Firstly, the Far East has rich natural resources: significant oil and gas reserves, as well as about 20 billion cubic meters of wood, are concentrated on an area of 6.21 million square kilometers. At the same time, the population is just over 6 million people, which creates a contrast between natural wealth and low population density. The northeastern provinces of China have a developed machine-building base and technological advantages in the development of oil, gas and engineering technology, which ensures complementarity with the resource potential of Russia.

Secondly, the geopolitical situation is stimulating a strategic turn to the East. NATO's eastward expansion poses a threat to the security of Russia's western borders. International sanctions, including disconnection from SWIFT (possibly partially restored), embargoes and price restrictions, led to a reduction in natural gas exports and damage to the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline^{[8, pp. 38-39]}. The Far East, as the gateway to the Asia-Pacific region, has acquired strategic importance. The development of the Far East has become a national priority, for which foreign investment is being attracted, including through the law on priority development territories, in order to ensure that by 2030 the GDP of the Far East will grow by 2 percentage points above the national average.^[9]

Thirdly, economic complementarity creates the need for cooperation. As the importance of the Asia-Pacific region in the global economic and political arena becomes more and more noticeable, Russia, by strengthening cooperation with the countries and regions of the Asia-Pacific region, integrating into the process of economic development of the Asia-Pacific region, further increases its influence in international affairs. Under the influence of the policy of "turning to the East", the Far East can take advantage of external forces, especially through cooperation with the northeastern regions of China, to jointly develop the resources of this region, stimulate the multidisciplinary development of the economy and reduce the gap in the level of development between the regions.

2.2 Significant results achieved after the introduction of the "turn to the East" policy In recent years, with the comprehensive renewal of the partnership between China and Russia, cooperation between the Russian Far East and the northeast region of China has achieved breakthrough successes. In the energy sector, as of December 2024, since the commissioning of the Sino-Russian Eastern gas pipeline in 2019, the total volume of gas supplied exceeded 80 billion cubic meters. Starting from December 1, 2024, Gazprom prematurely increased daily gas supplies to China via the Power of Siberia gas pipeline to the maximum contractual level at 38 billion cubic meters^[10] In the field of cross-border infrastructure, the first Sino–Russian cross-border railway bridge, the Tongjiang-Leninskoye Bridge, was commissioned in 2022, and as of June 2024, the total bilateral cargo turnover exceeded 6 million tons, and the cargo turnover of the Heihe-Blagoveshchensk highway bridge for the year amounted to more than 370 thousand tons. At the same time, both sides are actively promoting the construction of the Binhai No. 1 and Binhai No. 2 international transport corridors ^{[11, pp. 30-32]}. In the sphere of economic and trade relations, the northeast region of China imports resource products from the Russian Far East, such as timber, oil, natural gas, etc., and exports machine-building products, textiles, agricultural products, and others. ^{[12, p. 25]} Cultural and educational exchange also demonstrates significant success: Universities in Northeast China and the Russian Far East implement a wide range of exchange programs, including the Chinese-Russian Cultural Year, cultural performances and other events, as well as student exchanges, faculty visits, and joint research projects.

2.3 Policy measures taken by China after the introduction of the "turn to the East" policy

The policy of "turning to the East" not only meets the common strategic interests of China and Russia, but also provides an opportunity to deepen comprehensive strategic cooperation between the two countries, providing important opportunities for regional cooperation and the development of global multipolarity. China's political support and strategic considerations are based on the following areas:

Firstly, at the political level, China connects the Belt and Road initiative with the idea of the "Greater Eurasian Partnership" and the development strategy of the Far East, considering the policy of "turning to the East" as an opportunity to deepen cooperation between the two countries. ^[13] Russia can reduce its dependence on European markets by strengthening cooperation with the countries of the Asia-Pacific region, especially with China, in order to promote the development of the Far East and Siberia. In the face of Western sanctions, geopolitical pressure, and changes in the international landscape, regional cooperation in the Northeast-Far East regions can strengthen the strategic autonomy of the two countries and contribute to the development of the international order towards multipolarity.

During President Putin's visit to China in 2024, he visited Harbin, which was an important signal to accelerate the joint development of the Russian Far East between China and Russia. The Prime Ministers of China and Russia hold regular meetings, which indicates the strategic nature of the relations between the two countries. In this process, "China always adheres to the principles of non-alignment, non-confrontation and non-targeting of third parties,"^[14] advocating an open and inclusive model of regional cooperation.

Secondly, the "revival" of Northeast China. Northeast China borders the Russian Far East, and both sides, through cross-border economic cooperation, coordinated industrial development, integration, and complementarity of resources, can achieve coordinated development. Chinese development experience, such as the construction of special economic zones and attracting investments, also serves as a guideline for the development of the Russian Far East. Both sides, through joint efforts, can achieve mutual benefits and win-win results. During President Putin's visit to China in 2024, China and Russia made an important joint statement, which, in particular, talks about the development of the Russian Far East ^[15].

Thirdly, the promotion of regional and multilateral cooperation. Northeast China has huge geopolitical advantages, is closely connected with Russia, Mongolia and North Korea, and is an important link between China and Northeast Asia. Within the framework of multilateralism, marked by joint initiatives of China and Russia, using the regional advantages of the Northeast of China, both countries can contribute to further deepening cooperation mechanisms such as the SCO, BRICS and APEC. By strengthening trade, investment, and cultural exchanges, a more dynamic regional economic integration can be created to realize the overall development and prosperity of Northeast Asia. ^[16] III. The real challenges of cooperation and recommendations for regional cooperation between China and Russia in the Northeast-Far East regions in the context of the "turn to the East" policy

3.1 The real challenges of cooperation in the Northeast–Far East regions between China and Russia

In general, the policy of "turning to the East" is not only a geo-economic adjustment, but also an important part of the changes in global governance.^[17] However, based on the current international and regional situation, as well as the internal state of Russia's development, cooperation between the regions still faces numerous obstacles.

Firstly, there are institutional constraints: the economic level of development of the Russian Far East is relatively low, the market scale is limited, and the financial system is underdeveloped. The Russian Law on Foreign Investment stipulates that the share of foreign capital in strategic industries should not exceed 50%, and the average project review time is 18 months.^[9] In addition, problems remain in the areas of trade settlements, intellectual property protection, and environmental protection, which increases the economic risks of cooperation between enterprises. Western stigmatization and sanctions against Sino-Russian cooperation may also affect the promotion of some projects.

Secondly, the infrastructure is not well developed. Despite the creation of "priority development territories" in the Far Eastern region, infrastructure development is relatively lagging behind, making it difficult to strengthen trade and investment with neighboring countries. The congestion on the Trans-Siberian Railway reaches 95%, and cargo delays exceed 20 days. The freezing period of the Far Eastern ports reaches 4 months, and the outdated equipment of the port of Nakhodka reduces the efficiency of loading and unloading operations to 60% of the indicators of the port of Qingdao. Electricity grid coverage is less than 40%, which limits the implementation of mining projects.^{[18, p. 116]}

Thirdly, there is a difficult-to-overcome public mood, namely, the desire to build spiritual interaction in Asia, similar to the Western one. Russia's attachment to the West is due to its cultural traditions and historical development, which makes Russians more inclined to Western culture. How to overcome this spiritual attraction and form a sense of identity with Eastern culture is not an easy task. In addition, there are periodic disputes between the two countries over the historical affiliation of the Russian Far East. Thus, the development of the Far East remains an extremely sensitive but unavoidable topic in relations between China and Russia.

3.2 Recommendations on the formation of a new model of regional cooperation in Northeast Asia to promote cooperation between China and Russia in the Northeast–Far East regions

In the future, the trends in the development of Northeast-Far East regional cooperation between China and Russia may be expanded from bilateral to multilateral, from trade in energy resources to modernization of the entire industrial chain. The specific measures are as follows:

First, the improvement and innovation of cooperation mechanisms. The Governments of both countries should further strengthen high-level dialogue and communication, plan key areas of cooperation, and provide enterprises in both countries with regulatory support and clear targets. A specialized communications committee may be appropriately established to resolve political issues arising in the course of cooperation in a timely manner. A joint project database should be created to systematically evaluate and select projects, which will effectively avoid potential risks. At the same time, it is necessary to create a risk compensation fund that will provide the necessary financial cushion and guarantees for the functioning of projects of enterprises in both countries. It is necessary to facilitate the simplification of the implementation of cross-border investment projects, mutual recognition of national and regional certification systems, innovations in the currency system, etc.

Secondly, the development of new formats of sectoral cooperation will create a new center of economic growth in the east of the Eurasian continent. For example, by expanding green energy and the digital economy, using the experience of the Harbin Free Trade Zone and the Digital Economy Demonstration Zone, a platform for cross-border trade using blockchain technologies should be jointly developed. Using cheap Siberian energy, it is possible to develop the cloud computing industry and provide 5G coverage at the main border points to jointly promote artificial intelligence (AI) and the Internet of Things (IoT) in the Far East.

By jointly developing ice and snow resources, relying on the visa-free regime policy at border crossings and in cooperation with Heilongjiang Province, it is necessary to integrate unique ice and snow projects, create cross-border routes for ice and snow tourism, attract tourists to cross-border trips, as well as, from ice tourism and the production of winter sports equipment to creative initiatives in the field of ice and snow culture, to form a complete cross-border industrial chain of the ice economy, which will become a new engine for cross-border economic cooperation.

In the energy sector, create a complete development–processing–transportation chain, for example, by facilitating the creation of a joint oil refining venture between the Daqing oil field and the Sakhalin Oil and Gas Company.

In agriculture, to form a new model of triple cooperation "resources – production facilities – market", using the land resources of the Russian Far East in combination with advanced agricultural technologies and production capabilities of China to create a chain of processing, transportation and sale of agricultural products, as well as to seek new ways of settlement in local currency in food trade, so that high-quality agricultural products penetrated deeper into the vast Chinese market.

Third, to create a regional "cultural circle" in Northeast Asia. In the field of education, strengthen joint international educational programs to train highly qualified specialists in the Northeast-Far East regions between China and Russia. In the field of culture, through the regular holding of various cultural events, such as Chinese-Russian cultural festivals, weeks of academic seminars, etc., jointly discuss the trends of cultural development in Northeast Asia. Using the Year of Culture of China and Russia as a favorable opportunity to involve the SCO, BRICS, APEC, etc. member states in it, as well as jointly organize an international cultural forum to integrate multicultural resources and create a regional "cultural circle" in Northeast Asia.

Conclusion

China and Russia are engaged in close "back-to-back" cooperation. The Northeast–Far East regions are connected by mountains and rivers, and the policy of "Turning to the East" has brought both sides new opportunities and challenges for cooperation. Despite the fact that the current cooperation faces a number of challenges, both sides must overcome the bottlenecks of cooperation through institutional and sectoral innovations and strengthen its foundation through projects aimed at improving the well-being of the population. Cooperation between China and Russia in the Northeast–Far East regions has a long history. Based on geographical advantages and economic complementarity, while overcoming current difficulties, it can rethink the economic structure of Northeast Asia, stimulate the coordinated development of the economy of the entire region and open a new era of regional cooperation.