Comparative analysis of achievements and problems of carbon neutrality policy in Russia and China

Lyu In PhD in Politics Postgraduate student; Law Institute; Peoples' Friendship University of Russia 117198, Russia, Moscow, Moscow, Miklukho-Maklaya str., 6 ly6086805@163.com

Stepanov Sergei Aleksandrovich Doctor of History Professor; Department of Public Policy and History of State and Law; Peoples' Friendship University of Russia. Patrice Lumumba Miklukho-Maklaya str., 6, Moscow, 117198, Russia stepanov-sa@rudn.ru

Introduction

Carbon neutrality involves achieving a balance between greenhouse gases (mainly carbon dioxide) emitted as a result of human activities and greenhouse gases absorbed by nature. The goal is to maintain a balance of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere and control the global trend of rising temperatures. The consolidated "Sixth Assessment Report: Climate Change 2023", prepared by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), shows that the average global surface air temperature increased by 1.1°C between 2011 and 2020 compared to the pre-industrial period. The projected level of global greenhouse gas emissions by 2030 may lead to global warming exceeding 1.5°C in the 21st century, and keeping temperatures within 2.0°C will become an elusive task. ^{[10, p. 5]} The global response to climate change is grim.

Carbon neutrality dates back to the 1960s, when Western scientists expressed concern about the depletion of the earth's natural resources caused by rapid economic development. In 1968, the Club of Rome was established, bringing together leading experts to analyze the impact of technological and economic growth on the planet and the future of mankind. At that time, the global economy, especially in regions such as the United States, Europe, and Japan, was developing rapidly. However, scientists warned that such intensive development could lead to resource exhaustion. As a response, they proposed energy conservation, emission reduction, resource recycling, and also put forward the concept of sustainable human development.

In the 1970s and 1980s, research attention shifted to the issue of carbon emissions and climate change. Scientists have revealed that after the industrial revolution, global temperatures continue to rise, which can make the earth uninhabitable. As public awareness of this problem grew, in 1995 the United Nations held the first Climate Change Conference, which officially placed climate change on the international community's agenda. Since then, carbon neutrality has become a central strategy for mitigating climate change and protecting the earth. Governments, businesses, and public organizations are actively cooperating to achieve this goal.

In order to slow down global warming caused by an increase in greenhouse gas concentrations, Russia and China have made great efforts over the past 30 years, participating in the negotiations or formulation of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (1992), the Kyoto Protocol (1997), the Copenhagen Accord (2009), the Paris Agreement (2015), the Agreement the Glasgow Climate Convention (2021) and other international conventions that are more or less legally binding. Both countries have always attached great importance to environmental issues and provided political and legal support. Especially after the XVIII Congress of the Communist Party of China in 2012, the Central Committee of the Party, headed by Xi Jinping, raised the construction of an ecological civilization to an unprecedented strategic height. On October 26, 2023, the President of the Russian Federation signed Decree No. 812 approving a new edition of the Climate Doctrine of the Russian Federation. This doctrine has become the basis for Russia to develop and implement a climate policy that reflects Russia's active participation in addressing global climate change and promoting sustainable economic development. As an important global measure to reduce carbon emissions, China and Russia have consistently announced the goal of achieving carbon neutrality by 2060.

After the COVID-19 pandemic, all countries face dual challenges: reviving the economy and protecting the environment. At the same time, insufficient attention has been paid to the development of carbon neutrality. This article is aimed at summarizing the state of development of carbon neutrality policy in Russia and China, analyzing common and various problems that arise, and making recommendations for the successful achievement of carbon neutrality goals. In the course of the work, historical and institutional methods were used (when analyzing the history of the main institutions regulating greenhouse gas emissions), as well as conceptual content analysis (when studying the main documents on carbon neutrality from Russian and Chinese government departments, international organizations, consulting firms, large companies, etc.), as well as statistical analysis of secondary data, obtained from the listed sources.

The author analyzed policy documents on carbon neutrality from Russian and Chinese government departments, as well as research reports and databases from international organizations (such as the World Energy Organization, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and the Global Institute for Atmospheric Research emissions database), industry reports from world-renowned consulting firms and large companies (McKinsey & Company, BP Statistical Review of World Energy), with an emphasis on relevant papers on carbon neutrality written by Russian and Chinese scientists.

The study showed that extensive measures have been implemented in Russia to achieve carbon neutrality, including assessment of the carbon footprint, the introduction of taxes on carbon emissions and the development of low-carbon development policies. Russia's carbon neutrality policy was shaped by climate change and external pressure, with various strategic documents being adopted one after the other. The Sakhalin Climate Experiment was launched as a pilot project to achieve carbon neutrality by 2025, but it embodies Russia's international obligations, despite skepticism and implementation problems. ^{[1, pp. 452-470]} Dependence on carbon sinks, especially forests, is controversial, and debates about their actual absorption capacity complicate the accounting of carbon emissions ^{[2, pp. 38-48]}. Geopolitical crises and sanctions are preventing Russia from achieving its climate goals by limiting access to necessary technologies and investments. Future opportunities for cooperation with non-Western economies may offer alternative paths for technological progress and investment in low-carbon initiatives. However, a balanced approach is needed, and combining economic growth with environmental goals is still crucial ^{[3, pp. 1-31]}.

China's carbon neutrality policy represents a major promise to reduce greenhouse gas emissions while addressing air quality issues. China's heavy reliance on fossil fuels has prevented it from achieving its ambitious goals of peaking carbon emissions by 2030 and achieving carbon neutrality by 2060. ^[11] China is investing in advanced technology and policy innovation to achieve its dual carbon reduction goals, emphasizing the importance of industrial restructuring and green finance. ^[12] China still faces the challenges of "three highs and one minimum," including high energy consumption, high carbon emissions, high dependence on coal, and short deadlines for achieving its goals. ^{[13, p. 2]}

Although Russia and China have made great strides towards carbon neutrality, they face significant challenges, including economic dependence and geopolitical tensions. (Evro et al., 2024) Russia's ongoing energy cooperation with China, focused on low-carbon energy projects to combat climate change and enhance energy security, opens up a promising path forward in the global fight against climate change. ^{[6, c. 62- 69]}

From all that has been said above, there has been a lot of useful research in the existing literature on target commitments, behavioral characteristics, and ways (or measures) of carbon neutrality, but there is a lack of comparative research on the achievements and challenges of carbon neutrality in Russia and China. This paper attempts to fill this gap by comparing laws and regulations related to carbon neutrality policies, changes in the structure of energy consumption and attitudes towards participation in the global climate agenda, identifying the macroeconomic and geopolitical challenges faced by the two countries in achieving the goal of carbon neutrality, and analyzing the logic of international relations behind carbon policy. neutrality, and putting forward proposals for Russia and China to respond to this international situation.

Analysis of the progress of the carbon neutrality policy

As for the response to climate change, Russia's understanding and position have undergone significant changes in recent years: from doubt to concern, from an observer's position to active participation. Russia often participates in global climate negotiations and strives to demonstrate the image of a responsible power. The Government has developed strategic guidance, focusing on energy transformation and industrial energy efficiency through the development of hydrogen energy and low-carbon technologies, increasing the ability of forests to absorb carbon, creating carbon markets and setting carbon prices. At the same time, the emphasis is on promoting corporate participation and raising public awareness, as well as participating in various international cooperation initiatives. Table 1 provides a summary of the Russian carbon neutrality policy.

Table 1

Summary of Russia's carbon neutrality policy

Data source: Compiled on the basis of the ConsultantPlus official website.^[1]

As of the end of 2021, work has been completed in Russia on the formation of a standardized system of projects to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, and since June 1, 2023, a register of greenhouse gas emissions has been launched in Russia. Russia's forest cover is 43.2%, which is 22% of the world's forest area, which puts Russia in first place in the world in terms of CO₂ absorption. Russia plans to further increase the degree of forest cover in order to get closer to the goal of carbon neutrality.

Natural gas emissions account for only a third of the emissions from coal combustion. Russia actively uses natural gas both domestically and for export. The country attaches great importance to nuclear technologies and continues to increase the share of nuclear energy. Russia also promotes the development of renewable energy sources. In October 2019, the country's largest wind energy project was implemented on the coast of the Barents Sea north of Murmansk.

Figure 1 shows the share of primary energy consumption in Russia in 2022: natural gas accounts for 51%, while nuclear power, hydropower, and renewable energy sources account for about 15%. This indicates Russia's significant potential for the development of low-carbon energy.

Figure 1

Data source: Compiled on the basis of the BP World Energy Statistics Yearbook for 2023.^[2]

To achieve the goal of carbon neutrality, China has integrated climate objectives into all processes and stages of economic and social development, formulating important guidance documents, including national strategic planning, political and institutional systems, and social cooperation. Special attention is paid to five key areas: industry, energy, transport, construction and land use. Table 2 outlines China's main policy for carbon neutrality. These efforts can be summarized as a focus on the energy revolution, the adjustment of the industrial structure and the promotion of new low-emission modes of transport to promote energy conservation and emission reduction, carbon sequestration policies to enhance the ability of the environment to recover, and the continuous improvement of support mechanisms such as green finance and carbon trading.

Table 2

Summary of China's Carbon Neutrality policy

Data source: Compiled on the basis of the official government website.^[3]

Over the past four years, China's National Development and Reform Commission, as well as various regions and departments, have strengthened system concepts, strengthened overall coordination, and focused on the implementation of planned activities, which has led to significant progress. Figure 2 shows the consumption of basic types of energy in China from 2014 to 2023. It can be seen that coal remains the main source of energy in the country, but the share of low-carbon energy is steadily increasing. The report, "Strengthening China's Carbon Market to Achieve Carbon Neutrality: Focus on the Energy Sector," is a response to the Chinese government's invitation to the International Energy Agency to cooperate in coordinating the Emissions Trading System (ETS), as well as energy and climate policy. The report shows that the increased role of the carbon market can help ensure that the trajectory of carbon dioxide emissions in the energy sector is more consistent with China's goal of carbon neutrality. China is the largest producer of products in the field of key environmentally friendly energy technologies such as solar panels, wind turbines and batteries for electric vehicles. In 2023, China's total installed renewable energy capacity was almost 40% of the global total. ^[4] As of July 15, 2024, the total trading volume of China's national carbon market quotas reached 465 million tons, with a total trading volume of almost 27 billion yuan. In addition, China has committed not to build new overseas coal-fired power projects and has allocated 20 billion yuan to establish the China South-South Climate Change Cooperation Fund to support other developing countries in their fight against climate change.^[5]

Figure 2

Data source: Compiled from the National Bureau of Statistics of China. ^[6]

In terms of goals and strategies, Russia has committed to limit greenhouse gas emissions to 70 percent of 1990 levels by 2030 and achieve carbon neutrality by 2060. China has clearly set a goal to reach peak carbon emissions by 2030 and achieve carbon neutrality by 2060. From the point of view of the legal framework, Russia does not have comprehensive legislation on achieving carbon neutrality, mainly relying on the "Climate Doctrine of the Russian Federation" and administrative decrees. China's political system is more advanced, including "Interim Carbon Trading Management Rules" and related industry regulations. In terms of coverage, carbon quota trading pilot projects in Russia are limited, focusing on improving energy efficiency and increasing carbon uptake by forests. China has a national carbon trading market, and market mechanisms such as a carbon tax are being explored. In terms of international compliance, Russia and China participated in the Paris Agreement and introduced measures to reduce emissions. China is taking a more active part in global climate management, helping other developing countries cope with climate change.

Comparing the adoption and implementation of carbon neutrality policies in Russia and China, it can be noted that China is more active in formulating appropriate measures. Although the country has not yet adopted a separate law specifically aimed at achieving carbon neutrality, differentiated policies adapted to local conditions are being implemented in various regions and industries. Compared to China, Russia faces less pressure to achieve carbon neutrality due to the high proportion of low-carbon energy in its energy consumption structure. Russia focuses on the development of priority areas, taking into account national peculiarities, actively increases the level of implementation of green technologies and promotes the goals of carbon neutrality.

Analysis of the problems faced by the carbon neutrality policy

The right to carbon emissions is the right to development. Based on current national carbon emissions, rapidly industrializing developing countries, represented by China, are facing enormous emission pressures; based on per capita carbon emissions or total carbon emissions, developed countries should be responsible for historical carbon emissions.

According to the latest statistics from the Global Atmospheric Research (EC) Emissions Database, China ranked first in the world in terms of carbon dioxide emissions in 2023, reaching 15.9 billion tons, which is 30.1% of the global volume. This indicator significantly exceeds the emissions of the USA (11.3%), India (7.8%), the European Union (6.1%) and Russia (5.0%). Russia ranks first in the world in terms of carbon dioxide emissions per capita. ^[7] Both countries face challenges such as time constraints, heavy tasks, and high costs. Geopolitics and macroeconomics are hindering progress towards achieving the goal of carbon neutrality.

Time is short, the task is difficult, and the cost is high. The Russian Federation, where emissions are currently rising despite peaking in 1990, will need to reverse course in order to achieve its zero emissions goal. Decree of the President of the Russian Federation No. 666 dated November 4, 2020 "On the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions" sets the limit on greenhouse gas emissions at 70% of the 1990 level by 2030. ^[8] Russia faces the question of how to support economic growth while effectively addressing climate and environmental change. The vast territory and resource differences in different regions complicate the implementation of a carbon neutrality policy. As global temperatures rise, the Arctic region is demonstrating increasing strategic and economic value. Although Russia has huge hydropower potential, its development of renewable energy is relatively lagging behind. New energy projects such as wind and solar are limited in scale compared to the EU.

China is the world's largest consumer of energy and faces many challenges, including high complexity of tasks, limited time and significant financial costs. By comparison, the European Union peaked in carbon emissions back in the 1990s, while the United States, Japan, South Korea, and several other countries peaked around 2010. The time interval between carbon peak and carbon neutrality in China is only 30 years.^{[11, p. 90]} The high cost of energy transition projects prevents countries from making the necessary investments, thereby slowing down the pace of energy transition. According to the IEA, total energy costs (electricity, nuclear power plants, biofuels, energy storage) will exceed $3 billion for the first time in 2024, exceeding investments in crude oil and methane production. ^[9] According to the National Development and Reform Commission of China, China's total investment in achieving carbon peak and carbon neutrality is approximately 136 to 300 trillion yuan, which is 1/3 of the total global investment cost to achieve zero emissions by 2030. ^{[9, p. 15]} Due to the lack of empirically proven use cases, companies' costs for self-study of decarbonization are high, and they have no motivation to continue investing in research and development, which requires further political support such as subsidies and tax incentives.

The impact of economic sanctions. In 2020, the European Union announced plans to introduce cross-border regulation of carbon emissions and establish an international price level for carbon trading. In 2021, the EU introduced an energy package to combat climate change, including a mechanism for adjusting carbon boundaries. This mechanism assumes that the EU's trading partners will have to take into account the carbon footprint of exported products, reducing their carbon intensity.

For Russia, which is the main supplier of oil and gas to Europe, these measures mean the need to pay a carbon tax on exported products from 2022. This creates significant economic losses for the export of traditional energy resources. Moreover, global investment trends are increasing the pressure: many investors are starting to withdraw from financing high-carbon industries such as mining and processing of fossil fuels. Changes in the structure of global energy consumption and investors' abandonment of carbon-intensive industries are forcing Russia to rethink its energy export strategy, as well as adapt its energy policy to the new global market conditions. In the World Bank report, Makarov et al. (2021) used the calculated general equilibrium method for the first time to assess the impact of the carbon boundary Adjustment mechanism (CBAM) on the Russian economy and trade. The introduction of CBAM will lead to an average reduction in Russia's real exports to the EU to 7.5% in 2030-2035. Russia could introduce carbon prices and gradually raise them to EU prices, which would lead to a reduction in the CBAM rate.^[10]

The European Union and China have not yet been able to reach an agreement on fair trade rules in the renewable energy market. The reasons for the differences between Brussels and Beijing lie in the fields of electric transport and renewable energy. China dominates the electric vehicle and solar energy markets, and Europe is filled with cheap Chinese-made solar panels. The EU believes that cheap goods sold by Chinese companies in Europe are damaging the economy of the Old World. ^[11] On October 4, 2024, the European Commission approved a decision to impose tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles, which will take effect over the next five years, with a maximum tax rate of 45%.^[12] This measure will increase trade tensions between the EU and China.

Carbon neutrality is supposedly aimed at protecting the earth's environment and controlling too rapid an increase in earth's temperature. But this inevitably has geopolitical game goals. Climate issues often take a back seat to political and economic interests. After the escalation of the conflict in Ukraine, the energy crisis has engulfed the whole of Europe. The suspension of Russian natural gas supplies has left countries with serious problems during the cold winter. European countries have resumed their dependence on highly polluting and energy-intensive coal, and the long-established carbon neutrality agenda has been forced to give way to pressing safety and survival considerations. The Trump administration believes that the Paris Agreement will have a negative impact on the U.S. economy, especially by posing a threat to traditional energy industries such as coal. Therefore, in 2017, it announced its withdrawal from the agreement, becoming the only country to withdraw from the agreement.

Conclusion. The concept of carbon neutrality is inherently in line with current trends and has significant long-term significance. However, for Western countries that have already passed the stages of industrialization and modernization, their technological advantages and the completed process of industrial modernization have made it possible to transfer highly polluting and energy-intensive industries to developing countries, while promoting their own green transformation. In this context, the carbon neutrality initiative inevitably poses serious challenges and obstacles for developing countries that are at a critical stage of industrialization.

Comparing the proclamation and implementation of the carbon neutrality policy between Russia and China, it can be noted that China is actively formulating a carbon neutrality policy, while Russia is gradually joining the global carbon neutrality process. For Russia, which traditionally relies on the export of fossil energy resources to stimulate economic growth, the transformation of the energy structure is a complex and lengthy process. At the same time, China is facing a number of challenges, including the need to reduce carbon dioxide emissions, reform its energy structure, technological constraints, and transform its economic system. Currently, both countries are also facing economic sanctions from the United States and Europe on their way to achieving carbon neutrality.

In the context of the global goal of achieving carbon neutrality, both countries face the need to synchronize economic development with environmental transformation. However, challenges and opportunities always go hand in hand. The changes will lead to the emergence of new technologies and new industries, thereby bringing new growth momentum and potential business opportunities. Against the background of the goal of carbon neutrality, Russia has made a breakthrough in the field of hydrogen energy, developed forest carbon sinks and used renewable energy sources such as wind and hydropower. China has gotten rid of its heavy dependence on oil, which has led to the rapid development of wind and solar energy, as well as new energy vehicles that have maintained their leading positions in the world.

Strengthening cooperation between Russia and China in areas such as politics and legislation, research and development, capital and financial resources will open up new prospects for sustainable development and become an example of successful international partnership on the path to carbon neutrality.

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