Dorokhov E.V. —
Fuzzy evaluation of the value of shares of the issuer companies on the stock market using the example of Exxon Mobil
// Finance and Management. – 2025. – ¹ 1.
– P. 143 - 153.
DOI: 10.25136/2409-7802.2024.3.69374
URL: https://en.e-notabene.ru/flc/article_69374.html
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Abstract: The subject of the study is the task of determining a reliable valuation of the shares of stock market participants, stock investors, owners and purchasers of companies. The purpose of the work is to evaluate the shares of issuing companies on the stock market for various scenarios. The methodology of the research includes the application of methods of analysis of economic phenomena and processes related to the study of the development of issuing companies, as well as the assessment and forecasting of their economic activities. Fuzzy logic theory is used to model the development of issuing companies. The study of empirical data and identification of trends in the development of issuing companies is based on statistical processing of factual material. The methodology of fuzzy valuation of the shares of issuing companies has been developed, which includes databases of historical quotations and financial and economic indicators, as well as forecast fuzzy scenarios of their development. For the model forecast scenarios (basic and pessimistic), fuzzy estimates of the value of shares and investment indicators of the oil company Exxon Mobil are determined depending on the values of the time forecast stages of its development. The scientific novelty of the article lies in the use of fuzzy scenarios of the evolution of issuing companies, the fuzzy parameters of which make it possible to most adequately reflect the uncertainty of their forecast development. The presented method of fuzzy valuation of the shares of issuing companies may be in demand for practical application not only for stock market participants, owners and purchasers of companies, but also for potential ordinary investors. The results of the article can be used as a theoretical basis for further research in the field of fuzzy valuations of the shares of issuing companies.
Dorokhov E.V. —
Organization of effective management of the stock market on the basis of researching the processes of formation of the value of shares of the issuer companies
// Finance and Management. – 2023. – ¹ 4.
– P. 68 - 88.
DOI: 10.25136/2409-7802.2023.4.44026
URL: https://en.e-notabene.ru/flc/article_44026.html
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Abstract: The global economic crisis and the socio-economic consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic have a significant impact on the increase in volatility and risks of manipulation of stock asset quotes. The subject of the study is the organization of management of the investment fund process, taking into account non-market mechanisms for manipulating the value of shares of issuing companies. The purpose of the article is to improve the efficiency of managing the stock process based on the stock market model and procedures for fuzzy valuation of the value of shares of issuing companies within this model. The research methodology is based on the application of methods for analyzing economic phenomena and processes, a systematic approach to studying the development of issuing companies and stock markets. Modeling of fund processes is based on fuzzy logic theory and efficiency theory. The principles of stock market idealization and the principles of stock market management in a manipulated information environment are formulated. A model of the stock market is presented, which includes: an ideal model of the stock market, a model of fundamental disturbing factors and a model of stock market manipulation. Within the framework of the stock market model, an economic and mathematical model for estimating the value of shares of issuing companies has been developed, in which the uncertainty of parameters is described by fuzzy numbers. The novelty of the research lies in the formulated concept of factor psychodynamics (including a list of factors, functions of factors, the strength of factors and inertia of factors), which serves as the basis for the stock market model; as well as in the developed methodology for fuzzy valuation of shares of issuing companies. Participants of the stock market, potential investors, owners and acquirers of companies on the basis of the presented model of the stock market have the opportunity to obtain additional information about ongoing stock processes. Fuzzy procedures for estimating the value of shares of issuer companies make it possible to calculate the value of their shares in accordance with various forecast scenarios for the development of companies.